Analysis on the economic situation under the new n

2022-07-30
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Analysis of economic situation and macro policy trend under the new normal in 2015 aircraft trade fair

analysis of economic situation and macro policy trend under the new normal in 2015 aircraft trade fair

what is the current economic situation in China? What is the economic trend of our country in the future? In the new normal, which macro policies favor the electromechanical industry? What is the future development trend of the electromechanical industry? These questions are expected to be further answered at the 2015 China (Hefei) international Electromechanical Products Fair (hereinafter referred to as the 2015 Machinery Fair)

on October, 2015, maxiaohe from Anhui International Convention and Exhibition Center will attend the 2015 Machinery Fair - 2015 China Electromechanical Industry Development Summit Forum and deliver a keynote speech. At that time, he will judge from the current situation, analyze the influencing factors and trends of future economic growth, and master almost any chemical medicine; Even in the high temperature, the three aspects of possible policy changes are elaborated. The economic situation analysis and macro policy trend under the new normal are rich and colorful, which should not be missed

[content in advance]: China's economic growth has gone from high to low for 22 consecutive quarters. At present, although some indicators have improved, the rebound signal of economic growth is not clear. From the analysis of supply and demand indicators, domestic demand is weak, investment growth continues to decline, consumption growth is slow, foreign demand growth is not as expected, export growth is negative, industrial growth has risen from a high level for three consecutive months and then fell back, enterprise economic benefit growth has continued to decline, manufacturing PMI has also been at a low level for many consecutive months, CPI fluctuates below 2%, and the purchasing price of PPI and industrial producers has not narrowed in the negative value channel, Deflation risk factors are increasing

China's economic operation will still face great downward pressure in the coming months. This pressure comes from both international and domestic sources. Internationally, there are two aspects that affect China's exports: the dollar may further strengthen after raising interest rates, commodity prices continue to fall, and the possibility of deflation in the world economy continues to increase, which will continue to weaken the demand in the world market. On the other hand, as long as mechanical properties are required, in order to stimulate economic growth, all major economies in the world, except the United States, have adopted competitive devaluation policies, resulting in forced appreciation of the RMB. From the domestic perspective, there are four aspects that affect growth: first, under the new normal, economic growth is cyclical downward, and economic growth is promoted from high to medium in terms of economic aggregate and structure; Second, after the decline of investment, consumption growth is slow and the power is insufficient; Third, the sluggish manufacturing industry has affected economic growth. After the elimination of backward production capacity, the growth of successor industries (transformation and upgrading of traditional industries and emerging industries) can not keep up, Manufacturing investment "We can't predict where the strength of design will lead us. The growth rate of capital will decline rapidly, leading to weak economic growth. Fourth, the real estate market will show a positive trend in the first tier cities, but it will not recover significantly in the next two quarters, and its investment will be difficult to grow as high as before.

based on the above factors, China's economic situation in the future is judged that the total supply and demand will continue to be unbalanced, and it will be difficult to solve it only on the supply side China problem. The main problem of China's economy is insufficient demand. The core problem of insufficient demand is that the government and enterprises have obtained too many public and social resources to do everything possible to stimulate investment demand. Investment demand eventually drives the expansion of production capacity and compresses the consumption demand of residents in a smaller and smaller space. Therefore, solving the shortage of demand is still the main task of macro-control in the future. In particular, solving the shortage of consumer demand is the strategic task at present and during the 13th Five Year Plan period. In the second half of the year, under the stimulation of the government's steady growth, infrastructure investment will improve, but it is difficult for manufacturing and real estate investment to rebound significantly. Consumer demand continues to show a slow growth trend after the fundamental adjustment and decline of the distribution structure. Export growth will increase rapidly after the continuous depreciation of the RMB. Overall, the economic growth in the third and fourth quarters may be slightly better than that in the first half of the year, but the annual economic growth rate will be lower than that in 2014

china's economic growth will not be too low in 2015. The four measures taken by the government to stabilize growth can provide the bottom for the economy. First, the accelerated pace and intensity of reform can release some dividends of system reform and promote economic growth. Second, the country has tapped the growth potential from the adjustment of economic structure, which is conducive to economic growth. Third, implement the new "going out" strategy, and the the Belt and Road will promote the growth of foreign demand. Fourth, in, the central government continued to strengthen macro policies and measures to stabilize growth, which will also stimulate economic growth

in order to stabilize growth and prevent excessive economic growth from deviating from the expected goal, the direction of China's macro policy in the future is to strengthen policy support and stimulate the economy. Focus the policy stimulus on stimulating demand, especially on the consumer demand side. In terms of investment, it mainly solves the difficulties of urban and rural residents in medical treatment, education and culture, elderly care and health, housing security, drinking water safety, transportation and communication, and power consumption; In terms of consumption demand, the focus is on solving the income problems of low - and middle-income people and the poor, such as helping them start businesses to increase their income, significantly raising the pension subsidy standard and poverty relief standard, increasing the school subsidy for children of poor households, exempting high school and university tuition fees, further raising the threshold of personal income tax collection, and re implementing the subsidy and the old for new policy for the purchase of household appliances by urban and rural residents. In this regard, the proactive fiscal policy in the second half of the year should continue to strengthen and increase efficiency, which can increase the issuance of treasury bonds to expand consumption; We should continue to reduce the reserve ratio and the benchmark interest rate if we want to shift from prudent monetary policy to loose monetary policy; The reform should be accelerated. In particular, the urban-rural dual system, the national income distribution system, the state-owned enterprise system, the fiscal, taxation and financial system, and the administrative examination and approval system should be given an important position in the reform. The industrial policy should implement the "Internet +11" action plan and the "made in China 2025" ten year action plan as soon as possible. To this end, we must deploy some major projects and major projects to be undertaken during the 13th Five Year Plan period in advance in the second half of the year

[brief introduction to maxiaohe]

maxiaohe, a famous economist, an expert in collective learning and lecturing of the 17th Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, one of the promoters of China's urban-rural dual structure reform, and also a well-known expert advocating innovative reform and opening-up routes and promoting structural transformation in the new era. Research fields: macroeconomic analysis, industrial structure and industrial policy, system reform, etc. The main papers are as follows: the current economic situation, especially when unloading, should not let go of the analysis and macro policy; Reform needs top-level design; China's structural transformation has entered a period of acceleration; The strategic choice to surmount the middle-income trap; Urbanization is the new driving force of future economic growth; China dream - towards a high-income country, etc

his main works include structural transformation and sustainable economic development, China's urbanization practice and future strategic vision, China's industrial security under open conditions, China's industrial structure change and industrial policy evolution, China's new rural construction and South Korea's new rural movement, structural transformation and agricultural development, and many of his research achievements have won provincial, ministerial and national academic awards

[other guests and speech topics of China Electromechanical Industry Development Summit Forum]

liuzhifeng, vice president of Hefei University of technology and President of Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Research Institute: green development, green manufacturing

Panfeng, director of informatization promotion division of Anhui Provincial Economic and Information Technology Commission: three questions made in China 2025

[concurrent activities]

october 9 morning: opening ceremony of 2015 China (Hefei) international Electromechanical Products Fair Press conference of new products and technologies and Investment Exchange Promotion Association

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